With Indians this bad, what's next?

The Cleveland Indians have played 75 games so far this season, and on Monday at St. Louis won the opener of a series for the first time since May 19 against the Pirates. If any of out there reading this think the Indians can still be in a playoff race in 2006 then you might want to stop reading now, because this article is focusing on the unfortunate truth. That truth is that the Tribe is 17 games out of first, 15 games out of second (which happens to be the Wild Card in the American League) and the deficit keeps growing despite the Indians best efforts.

Knowing that, one must face the fact that 2006 is a lost season, and this article is going to focus on how the Indians can remodel what is a good core of players, most of which were here when

Cleveland won 93 games in 2005, and those players will be there in 2007.
2007 can be better but intelligent serious changes need to happen (particularly if the Central decides to keep putting out multiple legitimate contenders). At this point the question is how do the Indians go about remaking this team so that it will be closer to 90 wins again in 2007? Well I will play a little game of GM and to start we must take a look at what is going on.

In 2006 the Indians have a payroll of just over $56 million. To put that in perspective, and to illustrate what most of you perceive as the Tribe not spending money, the White Sox are at $102 million (4th highest in baseball), the Tigers are spending $82 million for their surprise leader, and even Minnesota is out spending the Indians by just over $8 million ($63 million). Spending money is only part of the equation. Especially with this team considering that not much money is being put into the budget to sign bigger free agents. If the Indians spent $70 million ($14 million more than now--or the equivalent of C.C. Sabathia and Paul Byrd’s contracts put together) Cleveland would still be 17th in the majors in payroll. Point there is that it should be plausible that the Indians can (and most of us would say should) spend more money. After all the old business adage is that “you must spend money to make money,” right? Anyway, let’s say for 2007 the payroll can be $70, I don’t think that’s too much and it is an increase of essentially two players to decent free agent contracts.

Secondly, we hear so much about the core of the team, well for those who don’t know they are referring to the young players that General Manager Mark Shapiro has signed to long term deals (you remember the John Hart style). Those players are: Jhonny Peralta (signed through 2008), Grady Sizemore (2012), Travis Hafner (2007 w/option for 08), Victor Martinez (2009 w/option for 2010), Sabathia (08), and Byrd (07 w/option for 08). The total salary of these six players this season is $19.3 million. If that seems like chump change in baseball, then it is, both Sizemore and Peralta make under $1 million, and Victor makes $1 million even.

Last weekend against Cincinnati we saw, what I think, is the beginning of the moves the Indians will make, and that is moving Victor to first base. Right off the bat (pardon the pun) that makes Eduardo Perez expendable, most likely in a trade this season and even Ben Broussard but that would not likely happen until the off season. Salary wise losing Broussard and Perez would save the Tribe $4.1 million. Both of these players are in the last year of their contract, though Perez has a club option for next season and Broussard has not reached the six year minimum to become a free agent yet, which translates to these players being traded as opposed to leaving via free agency. Other regular Indians that have their contracts up after this season: Ronnie Belliard ($4 million), Jason Michaels ($1.5 million), Bob Wickman ($5 million), and Guillermo Mota ($3 million). Jake Westbrook ($4.25 million), Aaron Boone ($3.75 million) and Casey Blake ($3 million) have their contracts end after 06 but have options for 2007. Of all the players just mentioned look for at least half of them to not be here next year, most likely candidates are Wickman, Boone, and Belliard. whether they leave for free agency at the end of the year or traded during this campaign.

Here comes the tricky part: the players that are trade bait this season (Wickman, Perez, Belliard, Boone, Broussard, Mota) would probably be traded to contending teams (if at all) and in return the Indians would probably not get major league ready talent and or cash. Let’s assume for the sake of argument, the Indians trade all the players I just listed or they left for free agency after the season, the point is that the Indians get players who would be in AAA Buffalo next year at best so as to not account in this equation. Money wise the Indians would save with all these trades and free agents roughly $17 million.

I know how complicated all this money talk sounds, so to break it down what I am trying to say is that this off season what the Indians should do is use what ever money they are given to sign a closer and veteran bullpen help (like the Tribe had last season with Arthur Rhodes and Bob Howry). The offense is still one of the top run producers in the league, and the starting pitching staff #1-4 is solid and should stay where they are (Sabathia, Westbrook, Byrd, and Cliff Lee). Victor moves to first, a catching platoon begins with Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko (assuming he will see more time at catcher in Buffalo now). Peralta at shortstop, Andy Marte at third, Sizemore, Blake and Michaels to round out the outfield. Hafner, of course, is the DH and that leaves second base. The choices for that position are to a) resign Belliard which seems unlikely, b) use Joe Inglett who is on the active roster right now but needs to prove he could play that which is a longshot, or c) pick up a veteran through a trade or free agency. These free agent possibilities include Miguel Cairo (NYY), Adam Kennedy (LAA), Luis Castillo (Twins), Mark Gurdzielanek (KC), and Mark DeRosa (Tex).

A fifth starter is another item of need for this team in 2007. The possibilities for that are Jeremy Sowers, Ted Lilly (Tor), Tony Armas (Was), or Miguel Batista (Ari) I would say are the best possibilities.

The bullpen is where the most work has to be done. A new closer will be needed; the only free agent closers are Mariano Rivera (good luck with that), Eddie Guardado who is not even a closer anymore with the Mariners, Joe Borowski who is dirt cheap, having a good year, and stuck with the Marlins and finally Wickman himself. A closer, it seems, would be something the Indians would have to trade for either this year but most likely in the off season. As for the rest of the bullpen, guys that will most likely be kept include: Rafael Bentancourt, Fernando Cabrera, and Fausto Carmona. We have not seen enough of Rafael Perez or Ed Mujica to add them to the list, but at least rest assured they are probably not going anywhere.

That leaves a closer spot and some veteran setup men spots, lets say three total spots available. Closer, as mentioned will be the trickiest because there are no big free agent closers like there were last off season. As for set up men, there are plenty. Here is a brief list with current salaries: righties Mike Remlinger (700K), LaTroy Hawkins ($4.4 million), Scott Williamson ($2 million), Mike DeJean ($1.5 million), Danny Kolb ($2 million), Felix Rodriguez (800K), Esteban Yan ($1.25 million), lefties Ray King ($2.5 million), Rheal Cormier ($2.5 million), Aaron Fultz ($1.2 million), Arthur Rhodes ($3.7 million), and Scott Schoeneweis ($2.75 million).

In summation, the Indians will keep their “core” players, bring up guys like Marte and Shoppach to permanent position jobs, keep the top four of the rotation in tact, and then spend anywhere (hopefully) between $7 and $12 million on the bullpen. Remember that guys like Marte will be making salaries under $1 million in 2007, combined with the $19.5 million of the “core” players, plus another $20 million or so in bullpen/closer help, a 5th starter and maybe a second baseman. That would bring the payroll to about $50 million ($6 million less than it currently is).

The Indians have options and if they take this type of game plan to either go with kids in the bullpen and or positions or to spend an extra $20 million to bring payroll up to a middle of the pack $70 million and that would allow for veteran bullpen and closer help, a second baseman, a 5th starter, and maybe a bat for the outfield to replace say Michaels or Blake.

The options are there and there are many paths to get this team retooled for 2007 and it should be starting very soon if it hasn’t already. Tune in later for further updates…

Another Cleveland What If Question

This past Sunday, while sitting on my couch trying to recover from a long night Saturday night I had this sudden urge to watch one of the DVD’s from the Cleveland Indians, Jacobs Field 10th Anniversary set (one of my favorite Christmas presents ever). I choose to watch the one from 1997. Now we all remember what happened in 1997, and first I need to put the disclaimer in here that I am not trying to dig up old wounds again from “Game 7,” but at the same time just follow me. We are asking on of those proverbial Cleveland sports questions, ‘what if?’

What if Jose Mesa didn’t suck, it would be interesting to see what we all would remember from that season. A season that could, nay should have been the Indians first title since 1948, and Cleveland’s first title since the Browns in 1964. So if Mesa didn’t blow the save (the person of course for whom the loss is mostly blamed), what would we all remember from 1997? Well one answer that might surprise you is this: Tony Fernandez would have gone down as one of the most fondly remembered Cleveland Indians of all-time.

Now at this point I know you’re thinking, Butters, what the hell are you talking about, I've never heard of this guy? Well the Indians had him and for most of the 1997 season Fernandez was just another Indian putting up modest numbers as the mainstay at Second Base. The was of course one of the side effects of trading away then fan favorite Carlos Baerga in the middle of the 96 season.

In 120 games Fernandez hit .286 with 11 homers and 44 RBI. He scored only 55 runs and committed 10 errors (.980 fielding Pct.) and then saw his time at second go way down with the August acquisition of Bip Roberts who could not only play second, but leadoff and steal bases (This was of course the only Tribe playoff year without Kenny Lofton). For the most part, Fernandez was average at best in 1997, and his contribution was soon forgotten that off-season when he signed with his original club, where he is fondly remembered and thought of, the Toronto Blue Jays (Toronto has even retired his number). The Indians would then have no answer at second base in 1998, which led them to sign Roberto Alomar in 1999.

Still wondering how Fernandez would have been one of the most famous Tribesmen, well that was just the back story after all, his real and should be remembered contribution came in that crazy time period known as October 1997, when of course the Indians came as close as they have since winning in 1948 to winning another World Series.

As I was watching the playoff part of the DVD, and all the great moments of the playoff run, you would see Sandy, a good Jaret Wright, hard hitting Chad Ogea, and the loudest ballpark in baseball. However, sprinkled in all this, at seemingly the most crucial times you would find one Tony Fernandez. That is exactly what I noticed as well, almost as if to say when watching the highlights “Hey there’s that Fernandez guy again!”

My point begins as simple as this, if Mesa doesn’t blow the save the Indians win the World Series, and Tony Fernandez would have been responsible for the series winning run in all three series played! That’s right, he hit what was, or should have become the series winner all three times. Those weren’t the only clutch moments for Fernandez in the 1997 playoffs.

ALDS, v. Yankees, Game 2, at Yankee Stadium.
With the Indians down in the Division Series 1-0 after blowing a 5-run lead by giving up back-to-back-to-back homers to the Yankees, rookie Jaret Wright gave up three runs in the first inning of Game 2. The Indians could have folded and effectively ended the series right there. But they didn’t. With one of my favorite opposing pitchers on the mound in Andy Pettitte (he’s one of my favorite because the Tribe always blew him up) the Indians struck back in the 3rd. With 2 out, David Justice, Sandy Alomar, and Jim Thome all hit RBI singles to tie the game, then Tony stepped up hitting righty off the lefty (Fernandez by the way was a switch hitter--yet another fact you probably forgot about him). So Tony steps up and pulls one to left. Chad Curtis (who played for the Indians earlier in 97) misplayed the ball, it went over his head, to the wall, and both Alomar and Thome scored, putting the Indians up 5-3. Wright settled down, and the Indians never looked back getting the crucial Game 2 to tie the series, with it shifting to Jacobs Field for the remaining three games.

ALDS v. Yankees, Game 5, at Jacobs Field.
With the Tribe tying the series again in Game 4 (Alomar with the HR off Rivera in 8th, followed by and Omar Vizquel game winning hit in the 9th), a Game 2 rematch was set for the deciding Game 5 with Pettitte going against Wright. This time around Wright was phenomenal from the start, giving up 3 runs, 2 earned in 5 1/3 innings. Pettitte, as usual against Cleveland, was hit hard again for three Indian runs in the 3rd and a 3-0 lead on a Ramirez two-run double, and an RBI single from Matt Williams. Now even though the Indians would not trail at all in this game, the Yankees (I guess because they are everyone’s nemesis) would chip away at the lead until Mesa closed them out in the 9th and the Indians won the game (and ALDS) 4-3. Wait a second, 4-3? When did the Indians get a fourth run, which therefore is the run that was just enough to hang on to the series win? That would be in the fourth inning by, what at the time was, a seemingly meaningless sacrifice fly by…..Tony Fernandez.
Alomar doubled to lead off, Thome laid down a sac bunt (trust me I know how hard that is to comprehend in 2006), and then Tony hit a liner to Paul O’Niell in right and the Indians had a 4-0 lead, that shrank to 4-3 after the sixth, but the Indians bullpen, even Mesa, hung on.

Fernandez in the Division Series: 2/11, .180, double, 4RBI. Overall Tony didn’t hit that well against New York, but the few times he did make contact, it was important contact, plus he was perfect from the field with 0 errors.

ALCS, v. Orioles, Game 3, at Jacobs Field.
The Indians had split the first two games in Baltimore, and Game 3 was the definition of a pitchers duel. Orel Hershiser and Mike Mussina locked horns and dominated the game. Mussina in seven innings allowed one run (a Matt Williams RBI single in the 7th), 3 hits, and struck out 15. Hershiser was able to match him that late afternoon going seven shutout innings and striking out 7. Later in the 9th, Mesa on to close the game and this blown save I can’t blame on him (as much as one would want to) because it was Marquis Grissom (hero of Game 2) who lost the ball in the lights and Jeff Reboulet scored from first to tie the game. Moving to the 12th now, as afternoon becomes evening, and the Indians offense still can’t get going against the best bullpen in American League in the Orioles. A bullpen that featured Randy Myers who led the league with 45 saves, a young Armando Benitez, a younger Arthur Rhodes, and ancient former Indian Jesse Orosco. With one out, Grissom walked, which brought up Tony Fernandez. Fernandez hit an opposite field flare to right that dropped in front of Jeffery Hammonds. Grissom moved to third and slid in nicely to beat Hammonds throw. Runners on the corners, one out, and Omar is up. You know the rest of the story, for on the very next pitch was the “suicide squeeze.” You know that hilarious play where Lenny Webster dropped the ball, assumed that Vizquel had fouled it off, and Grissom races to home and scores while the ball is 4 feet from home plate the entire time and Webster just watches Grissom fly past him. Point to this is that though Fernandez didn’t get the game winner, he is responsible for setting the stage for one of the strangest ways a baseball game has ever ended…stealing home on a passed ball from a missed suicide squeeze (guaranteed they don’t practice that in spring training). Either way the Indians were ahead in the series and would not trail again.

ALCS, v. Orioles, Game 6, at Camden Yards
This is the one Tony Fernandez moment that you may actually remember as well as the story behind it. In batting practice earlier in the day, with Fernandez in the cage. He hit’s a liner, which bruises Bip Robert’s hand, forcing manager Mike Hargrove to remove Roberts from the lineup and put Tony in. Bip was supposed to start at second base that day. You know the rest. Mussina and the Oriole pitching was untouchable, while Charles Nagy, in what to me was his best moment ever, pitched in a way that made you think that you were watching Bob Wickman for seven innings (Nagy went 7 1/3). In the end Nagy denied Baltimore of any runs and the game was still scoreless heading to the 11th. Benitez is now in for Baltimore and had already given up two game winners in this series, this was about to the third. With two out, Fernandez hitting from the left side this time, got into a Benitez fastball and drilled it over the right field scoreboard to the standing room only crowd on Eutaw Street. Indians win 1-0, and win only their 5th American League Pennant ever. By the way of the three, that’s right, three total hits the Indians had in 11 innings that day, Tony Fernandez had two of them.

Fernandez in the ALCS: 5/14, .357, double, HR, 2 RBI, 1 error. Fernandez hit the pennant winning homer, and a surprising .357, his highest postseason batting average until he out did himself in the 97 World Series. This of course is also a player who played with the good Toronto Blue Jay teams of the late 80’s and early 90’s, and won a ring with the 93 Jays.

World Series, v. Marlins, Game 7, at Joe Robbie Stadium
The day that should’ve been Cleveland’s finest moment in about 35 years. It would be Herb Score’s last broadcast after seeing so much losing, it was the day that was supposed to exorcize the demons and start the so-called curse busters nearly a decade earlier than it did with the Red Sox and White Sox. And for 25 of 27 outs it looked like it would have. This is where I will spare you from recapping some of the pain. However earlier in a game that featured veteran Al Leiter and rookie Jaret Wright, the Indians struck first. Wright was masterful and as we all know should’ve gone down in history as the youngest person ever to win a Game 7 of a World Series (it wasn’t to be and that honor would go to the Angel’s John Lackey in 2002). With a good pitchers duel forming and the Tribe batting in the third, Thome walked, followed by a Grissom single. After Wright sac bunted them over and Vizquel poped out, Fernandez strode to the plate and connected for a two-out, two-run line single to center that put the Indians up 2-0.
Even with Bobby Bonilla’s homer off Wright in the 7th, Cleveland still led 2-1, and as we know if Mesa doesn’t blow the save, that would have been the final score. This means that Tony Fernandez would have had the series winning RBI in the Division, League Championship and World Series! This I can’t stress enough for my argument, because if it had gone down that way, that’s what we would remember (among other things). This is of course where reality sets in, the save didn’t get saved, and Fernandez pulls the death nail ‘Bill Buckner’ play that opened the Marlins door of victory in the 12th. Remember though if Mesa doesn’t blow the save, a side effect (other than a World title) is that that play never happens.

Fernandez in the World Series: 8/17, .471, double, 4 RBI, 2 errors. Fernandez came up big offensviely in an offensive minded series. His .471 average a career best for a playoff series and had a number of nice hits in key situations. For the entire postseason in 1997 for Cleveland, Fernandez was: 15/42, .357, 3 doubles, HR, and 10 RBI. The 10 RBI's tied a career high for a playoff year with his 1993 playoffs with Toronto.

10 seasons later, Fernandez is a just a footnote in Cleveland Indians history, who is only remembered (though it is a great thing for one to be known) for hitting the pennant winning home run in 1997. Some out there choose to remember the ball rolling under his glove at second, but that is I guess just the Cleveland way of thinking. Tony after all is remembered as one of the Blue Jays greatest heroes, and did have a good career spanning 17 seasons from 1983-2001, 11 of those with the Blue Jays. Overall an average to above average player in a league filled with stars and busts. A player who is remembered in one city only, but who could have been made immortal in another.